Toncoin Experiences On-Chain Deleveraging Amid Market Downturn

Toncoin (TON), the native cryptocurrency of the TON blockchain, is currently undergoing a significant deleveraging phase, as identified by blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant. Analyst Joao Wedson has highlighted a sharp decline in the Total Value Locked (TVL) across decentralized exchanges (DEXs), centralized exchanges (CEXs), derivatives, and options platforms associated with TON.

This downturn indicates growing investor fatigue and discouragement regarding Toncoin’s market performance. Some investors have opted to liquidate their positions to minimize exposure. However, this scenario may present a strategic opportunity for larger investors, or “whales.” Historically, periods of retail investor capitulation have often preceded substantial accumulation by these larger players, who capitalize on discounted prices.

Notably, the Staking TVL Ratio—which measures the proportion of total TVL allocated to staking—is showing signs of recovery. This trend suggests that, despite the speculative market downturn, a segment of investors remains optimistic about Toncoin’s long-term prospects, choosing to stake their tokens rather than sell them. Such behavior could signal an impending recovery phase.

As of the latest data, Toncoin is trading at $4.82, reflecting a 2.14% decrease over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency’s market capitalization stands at approximately $12 billion, with a 15.88% decline in trading volume, now at $134.16 million. Recent market activity has seen over 240,000 TON tokens transferred to exchanges, indicating increased selling pressure. Historically, such movements have been associated with subsequent price declines.

The number of Toncoin addresses currently in profit has reached record lows, raising concerns about the token’s future price trajectory. Despite these challenges, the ongoing deleveraging could expedite Toncoin reaching its price floor, potentially setting the stage for accumulation and a subsequent rebound.

Technical analysts suggest that a rally could be initiated if Toncoin’s price surpasses $5.78. More optimistic projections estimate the token could reach $7.43, with long-term forecasts extending to $10. These potential recoveries are contingent upon various factors, including market sentiment, investor behavior, and broader economic conditions.

In summary, while Toncoin is currently facing significant market challenges, the observed deleveraging and staking trends may pave the way for future recovery, offering potential opportunities for strategic investors.